

Currently released so far... 12689 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
2011/05/18
2011/05/19
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AF
ASEC
AR
AEMR
AMGT
AE
AU
AID
AORC
APER
AS
AM
AFIN
AMED
AJ
AGR
ACOA
ANET
ASIG
ABLD
AL
AA
APECO
AGAO
AY
AGMT
APEC
AINF
AG
ACS
AECL
AFFAIRS
ABUD
ASUP
ADANA
AADP
AMCHAMS
ARF
ASEAN
ADPM
ATRN
ALOW
APCS
ADCO
ACAO
AORG
AROC
AO
AODE
ACABQ
AX
AMEX
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
ASCH
AFU
AMG
ATPDEA
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AORL
ADM
AN
AIT
BU
BR
BL
BO
BA
BB
BG
BM
BBSR
BH
BEXP
BK
BD
BTIO
BT
BE
BY
BF
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BILAT
BIDEN
BC
BMGT
BWC
BN
BTIU
CH
CG
CF
CU
CE
CVIS
CASC
CO
CS
CA
CIDA
CBW
CW
CMGT
CI
CODEL
CY
CPAS
CJAN
CD
CWC
CDG
CIA
CL
CROS
CAPC
CTR
CT
CR
CBSA
CEUDA
COM
CFED
CV
CACS
CARSON
CLINTON
CN
CONS
CM
CAC
CIC
COPUOS
CDC
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
COUNTER
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
COE
CARICOM
CB
CSW
CITT
CACM
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
CNARC
CIS
EG
EZ
EUN
ECON
ETRD
ECPS
EFIN
ENRG
ETTC
EPET
EINV
EAID
EAIR
EWWT
EU
EAGR
EC
ELAB
EIND
EN
EMIN
ESENV
ENNP
EFIS
ELTN
ET
ECIN
EFTA
ES
EINT
EI
ENGR
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENVI
ETRDECONWTOCS
ECINECONCS
ELN
ELECTIONS
ENVR
EXTERNAL
EXIM
ETRO
ENIV
ESA
ER
EK
EUR
EFINECONCS
EUMEM
EUREM
EPA
ERNG
ENERG
ECA
ETRC
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
EAIG
EUC
ERD
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
IS
IZ
IR
IC
IO
IN
ID
IGAD
IT
ILC
IAEA
ITU
ICAO
IMO
IBRD
IMF
ICJ
IAHRC
ITF
INRA
INRO
IWC
IQ
IV
ICRC
ICTY
INRB
IEFIN
ILO
ITRA
ITALY
IBET
ISRAELI
IL
INTELSAT
IRC
IDP
ICTR
IRAQI
IPR
IIP
INMARSAT
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
IRS
IA
INTERPOL
IEA
INR
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
ISRAEL
IACI
INDO
IDA
ISLAMISTS
KSPR
KNNP
KWBG
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KN
KS
KIPR
KCRM
KDEM
KIRF
KJUS
KHLS
KSCA
KOMC
KAWC
KV
KFRD
KWMN
KTIP
KPWR
KSUM
KGHG
KTIA
KTFN
KIRC
KCOR
KACT
KMDR
KGIC
KOLY
KUNR
KIDE
KMPI
KPKO
KCFE
KVPR
KRAD
KPAL
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KTEX
KTDB
KFSC
KZ
KSEP
KFLU
KE
KU
KPLS
KRVC
KRIM
KSTH
KG
KFLO
KPOA
KICC
KDDG
KPRV
KTBT
KBCT
KSAF
KMOC
KDRG
KBIO
KREC
KSTC
KVRP
KBTR
KMIG
KENV
KNSD
KCGC
KWAC
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KWMM
KPRP
KNEI
KPAI
KO
KVIR
KX
KMCA
KCRS
KMFO
KID
KCIP
KNAR
KR
KCRCM
KBTS
KSEO
KHDP
KFIN
KOCI
KGIT
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KSCI
KTLA
KHIV
KCSY
KTRD
KMRS
KNPP
KJUST
KCMR
KTER
KRCM
KCFC
KSAC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KCOM
KLIG
KDEMAF
KAID
KGCC
KICA
KHUM
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KRGY
KIFR
KWMNCS
KPAK
KOMS
KHSA
MPOS
MOPS
MARR
MTCR
MNUC
MASS
MX
MCAP
MAR
MTRE
MASC
MK
MG
MTCRE
MI
MD
MA
MO
MY
MU
ML
MRCRE
MAS
MEDIA
MC
MR
MIL
MW
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPN
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MT
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
MEPP
MASSMNUC
MUCN
MQADHAFI
NATO
NG
NL
NZ
NT
NW
NO
NU
NS
NPT
NASA
NI
NK
NSG
NE
NORAD
NAFTA
NP
NATIONAL
NSSP
NSF
NA
NGO
NV
NR
NDP
NIPP
NZUS
NH
NC
NEW
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
NPG
NSC
NPA
NSFO
OPDC
OPRC
OEXC
OTRA
ODIP
OIIP
OVIP
OPIC
OPCW
OAS
OREP
OSCE
OSCI
OES
OFDP
OECD
OCS
OIC
OPAD
OVP
OHUM
OFFICIALS
OIE
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OBSP
OFDA
ON
OCII
PREL
PGOV
PARM
PINR
PTER
PHUM
PK
PREF
PM
PHSA
PA
PINS
PE
PBTS
PCI
PO
PL
POGOV
PAK
PEL
PGIV
PROP
PP
PBIO
POL
POLITICS
POLICY
PINL
PBT
PMIL
POV
PTBS
PG
POSTS
PALESTINIAN
PROV
PNAT
PINF
PRL
PAS
PDOV
PRAM
PREO
PAHO
PHUMPGOV
PAO
PREFA
PSI
POLITICAL
PAIGH
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PGOC
PY
PLN
PHUH
PF
PHUS
PU
PARTIES
PCUL
PGGV
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RW
REACTION
RCMP
RSO
RO
RP
ROOD
RM
ROBERT
RICE
REGION
RSP
RF
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
RELATIONS
RFE
REPORT
SY
SP
SOCI
SMIG
SNAR
SCUL
SC
SU
SO
SI
SENV
SZ
SW
SA
SR
SF
SEVN
SN
STEINBERG
SEN
SG
SYR
SWE
SK
SH
SNARCS
SAARC
SNARIZ
SPCE
SARS
SNARN
SCRS
SYRIA
SL
SENVKGHG
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SSA
SPCVIS
SOFA
SANC
SHI
SHUM
SIPRS
TSPA
TSPL
TU
TBIO
TRGY
TPHY
TS
TP
TW
TBID
TI
TF
TZ
TD
TT
TN
TNGD
TC
TX
TH
TL
TIP
THPY
TV
TK
TERRORISM
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TINT
TFIN
TAGS
TR
US
UNSC
UNGA
UK
UP
UNCHC
UN
UNMIK
UNCSD
UY
USTR
USOAS
UNHRC
UNFCYP
UG
UNAUS
UNESCO
UNIDROIT
UNO
UV
UNHCR
USUN
UZ
USNC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNEP
USEU
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNDP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
UNPUOS
UNDC
UNICEF
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09ASUNCION189, PARAGUAYAN POLS PLOT PARLIAMENTARY PUTSCH
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASUNCION189.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ASUNCION189 | 2009-03-28 20:24 | 2011-04-06 00:00 | SECRET | Embassy Asuncion |
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHAC #0189/01 0872024
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 282024Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7716
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
...id: 199404
date: 3/28/2009 20:24
refid: 09ASUNCION189
origin: Embassy Asuncion
classification: SECRET
destination: 07ASUNCION910|08ASUNCION535|08ASUNCION598|08ASUNCION611|09ASUNCION188
header:
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHAC #0189/01 0872024
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 282024Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASUNCION
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7716
INFO RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
----------------- header ends ----------------
S E C R E T ASUNCION 000189
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/BSC MDASCHBACH
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PINS PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAYAN POLS PLOT PARLIAMENTARY PUTSCH
REF: A. 08 ASUNCION 00611
¶B. 08 ASUNCION 00598
¶C. 08 ASUNCION 00535
¶D. 07 ASUNCION 00910
¶E. 09 ASUNCION 00188
Classified By: DCM Michael J. Fitzpatrick; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
--------
SUMMARY
--------
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Rumors persist that discredited General and
UNACE party leader Lino Oviedo and ex-president Nicanor
Duarte Frutos are now working together to assume power via
(mostly) legal means should President Lugo stumble in coming
months. Their goal: Capitalize on any Lugo mis-steps to
break the political deadlock in Congress, impeach Lugo and
assure their own political supremacy. While many predicted
political shenanigans in March during the traditional social
protest season that accompanies the opening of Congress,
little has come of it (largely because Lugo has been careful
not to provide the political or legal rope with which to hang
him, thus depriving Oviedo and Duarte the numbers in Congress
for their supposed "democratic coup"). But that could change
quickly here. Mid-March outrage over multi-million dollar
subsidies for sesame growers via a discredited NGO was
considered as a possible ground for impeachment before Lugo
walked away from the program (though the controversy
continues). For a president already facing many challenges
-- internal political struggles, corruption, and the
perception that his own leadership style is ineffective --
Lugo must now also worry about making a mis-step that could
be his last. END SUMMARY.
------------------
DOWN, BUT NOT OUT?
------------------
¶2. (S) Paraguay's two-most controversial politicians --
cashiered General and UNACE party leader Lino Oviedo and
discredited ex-president Nicanor Duarte Frutos -- simply
refuse to go away. After using the first six months of the
Lugo administration to quietly lick their electoral wounds
the duo are now positioning themselves to assume power should
President Lugo stumble in coming months. Sensitive reporting
(and other Embassy contacts) indicate that Duarte and Oviedo
would like to create circumstances which could lead to a
constitutional change of government (ref A). An
Oviedo-Duarte partnership began long before President Lugo's
inauguration last August. As President in 2007, it was
Duarte who used his control of the Supreme Court to free
Oviedo from jail. (NOTE: Oviedo was serving time for
involvement in the 1999 assassination of Vice President Luis
Argana and the subsequent Marzo Paraguayo massacre of unarmed
student protesters (ref B). END NOTE). Duarte incorrectly
assumed that if Oviedo ran for president, he would split the
opposition vote, thus ensuring a win for his own Colorado
puppet candidate, Blanca Ovelar.
¶3. (C) In return for Oviedo's freedom, his political party
UNACE supported Duarte's constitutionally dubious Senate bid
(ref C). Senate President Enrique Gonzalez Quintana swore in
Duarte last August in his private chambers after failing
several times to get a quorum for that purpose. However, the
Senate rejected Gonzalez Quintana's unilateral act and swore
in Duarte's substitute in early September (ref D).
¶4. (C) Oviedo also suffered a political setback last
September, when the military's congressional liaison, General
Diaz, informed President Lugo that Oviedo, Duarte and others
had invited him to a meeting at which they then discussed the
possibility of a coup. Lugo immediately exposed the meeting,
further damaging Oviedo's "democratic credentials." Oviedo
since has become Lugo's principal political adversary,
instructing his "troops" in UNACE party to oppose all
Congressional initiatives and reforms Lugo pursues, and
refusing to meet with Lugo. There is no deeper political and
personal divide in Asuncion today that that between Lugo and
Oviedo. And the distaste and distrust are as mutual as they
are deep.
------------------
A FARFETCHED PLAN
------------------
¶5. (C) Duarte's and Oviedo's shared goal: Find a "cause
celebre" to champion so as to change the current political
equation, break the political deadlock in Congress, impeach
Lugo and regain their own political relevance. Oviedo's
dream scenario involves legally impeaching Lugo, even if on
spurious grounds. (With a two-thirds vote, the Chamber of
Deputies may bring impeachment proceedings against the
president. Like in the United States, the Senate tries
impeachments, again requiring two-thirds vote to convict).
The presidential baton would thus, in this scenario, pass to
Vice President Federico Franco, who would be
constituitionally required to call vice-presidential
elections within 90 days. Given the institutional collapse
and political fratricide reigning now within the Colorado
Party, Oviedo would be the obvious leading candidate.
Meanwhile, Duarte, having regained his Senate seat via
Supreme Court maneuvering, would assume the Senate presidency
and become number three in the line of presidential
succession. The Liberal Franco would be President, but
Oviedo and Duarte would control Congress -- and the courts.
Farfetched? Perhaps. But not entirely unprecedented in
Paraguayan politics.
---------------------------------
BACK TO REALITY: THE HARD NUMBERS
---------------------------------
¶6. (C) Throughout January and February, post heard increased
reports of a possible "constitutional" plot against Lugo
after Congress returned to session in March. However, Oviedo
and Duarte have not had the public excuse -- much less the
numbers in Congress -- for their supposed "democratic coup."
In order to bring impeachment charges in the lower house,
Oviedo/Duarte need 53 votes. Assuming the support of all 30
Colorados (not an easy assumption in light of divisions in
the Colorado Party between Duarte and his former Vice
President Luis Castiglioni) and 15 UNACE deputies,
Oviedo/Duarte today fall at least eight short of the votes
they need to bring impeachment charges. The environment in
the Senate is similar: Oviedo/Duarte need 30 votes to convict
but have only 24 in the best case scenario (15 Colorado
senators -- six of which are led by Luis Castiglioni -- plus
9 UNACE senators).
-------------------------------
NO BASIS (YET) FOR IMPEACHMENT
-------------------------------
¶7. (C) Several of Embassy's key political contacts conclude
that Lugo's best defense against impeachment is that most
political actors prefer working with him to the alternative:
Vice President Federico Franco. (BIO NOTE: Franco is known
for being an old-school Liberal party politician with an
oversized ego and a difficult personality. END NOTE).
Additionally, Congress cannot vote to impeach Lugo without at
least superficial political or legal grounds. Lugo has been
in office only seven months, and the situation is not ripe
for impeachment. Instead, despite rumblings about Lugo's
mild-mannered leadership style and his failure to set out a
national agenda, public support for the Lugo administration
remains high. The Bottom Line: Given the nightmare scenario
of General Oviedo and Nicanor Duarte Frutos jointly running
the show, the general political consensus here -- among
rationalists, anyways -- remains strong: For all foibles,
President Lugo remains Paraguay's least worst option.
-------
COMMENT
-------
¶8. (C) COMMENT: As history demonstrates, nothing is
impossible in Paraguay. But politics here can turn on a dime.
Witness Nicanor's masterful 2007 orchestration of Oviedo's
release from military prison -- and the clearing of all
charges -- just hours before the 2008 electoral campaign
registration deadline. Lugo is now confronted by sudden
political clashes after the announcement of USD 8 million in
sesame subsidies to a discredited campesino-run NGO. Lugo
immediately walked back the announcement, for fear (in part)
of providing legal basis for impeachment, even as he still
pursues subsidies for suffering sesame farmers. Campesino
leaders seem to currently have the upper hand, thus forcing
Lugo's Agriculture Minister to seek to quit. But this is far
from over. For a president already facing many challenges --
internal political struggles, corruption, and the perception
that his own leadership style is ineffective -- Lugo must now
also worry about possible impeachment charges. There is no
doubt that Oviedo and Duarte are bent on regaining leadership
roles in Paraguayan politics (and, ahem, economics). As
Defense Chief Admiral Benitez recently told Ambassador (ref
E), "Oviedo has been plotting since the day he was born."
Rumors and conspiracy theories are indeed the lifeblood of
Paraguayan politics, and should be viewed as the norm. It is
when the rumors stop that we really should start worrying.
END COMMENT.
Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/asuncion
AYALDE
=======================CABLE ENDS============================