

Currently released so far... 12689 / 251,287
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
2011/03/23
2011/03/24
2011/03/25
2011/03/26
2011/03/27
2011/03/28
2011/03/29
2011/03/30
2011/03/31
2011/04/01
2011/04/02
2011/04/03
2011/04/04
2011/04/05
2011/04/06
2011/04/07
2011/04/08
2011/04/09
2011/04/10
2011/04/11
2011/04/12
2011/04/13
2011/04/14
2011/04/15
2011/04/16
2011/04/17
2011/04/18
2011/04/19
2011/04/20
2011/04/21
2011/04/22
2011/04/23
2011/04/24
2011/04/25
2011/04/26
2011/04/27
2011/04/28
2011/04/29
2011/04/30
2011/05/01
2011/05/02
2011/05/03
2011/05/04
2011/05/05
2011/05/06
2011/05/07
2011/05/08
2011/05/09
2011/05/10
2011/05/11
2011/05/12
2011/05/13
2011/05/14
2011/05/15
2011/05/16
2011/05/17
2011/05/18
2011/05/19
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Apia
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Auckland
Consulate Amsterdam
Consulate Adana
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belmopan
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dili
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Helsinki
Embassy Harare
Embassy Hanoi
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Consulate Hermosillo
Consulate Hamilton
Consulate Hamburg
Consulate Halifax
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kingston
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lahore
Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE
Mission USNATO
Mission UNESCO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manila
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Consulate Melbourne
Embassy Nicosia
Embassy Niamey
Embassy New Delhi
Embassy Ndjamena
Embassy Nassau
Embassy Nairobi
Consulate Naples
Consulate Naha
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Of Spain
Embassy Port Louis
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Suva
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate St Petersburg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sapporo
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Toronto
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Office Almaty
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius
Embassy Vienna
Embassy Vatican
Embassy Valletta
Consulate Vladivostok
Consulate Vancouver
Browse by tag
AF
ASEC
AR
AEMR
AMGT
AE
AU
AID
AORC
APER
AS
AM
AFIN
AMED
AJ
AGR
ACOA
ANET
ASIG
ABLD
AL
AA
APECO
AGAO
AY
AGMT
APEC
AINF
AG
ACS
AECL
AFFAIRS
ABUD
ASUP
ADANA
AADP
AMCHAMS
ARF
ASEAN
ADPM
ATRN
ALOW
APCS
ADCO
ACAO
AORG
AROC
AO
AODE
ACABQ
AX
AMEX
AFGHANISTAN
AZ
AND
ARM
AQ
ATFN
AMBASSADOR
ACBAQ
AFSI
AFSN
AC
AUC
ASEX
AER
AVERY
AGRICULTURE
ASCH
AFU
AMG
ATPDEA
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AORL
ADM
AN
AIT
BU
BR
BL
BO
BA
BB
BG
BM
BBSR
BH
BEXP
BK
BD
BTIO
BT
BE
BY
BF
BX
BP
BRUSSELS
BILAT
BIDEN
BC
BMGT
BWC
BN
BTIU
CH
CG
CF
CU
CE
CVIS
CASC
CO
CS
CA
CIDA
CBW
CW
CMGT
CI
CODEL
CY
CPAS
CJAN
CD
CWC
CDG
CIA
CL
CROS
CAPC
CTR
CT
CR
CBSA
CEUDA
COM
CFED
CV
CACS
CARSON
CLINTON
CN
CONS
CM
CAC
CIC
COPUOS
CDC
CONDOLEEZZA
CICTE
COUNTER
COUNTRY
CBE
CKGR
CHR
CVR
COUNTERTERRORISM
CITEL
CLEARANCE
COE
CARICOM
CB
CSW
CITT
CACM
CDB
CJUS
CTM
CAN
CLMT
CBC
CNARC
CIS
EG
EZ
EUN
ECON
ETRD
ECPS
EFIN
ENRG
ETTC
EPET
EINV
EAID
EAIR
EWWT
EU
EAGR
EC
ELAB
EIND
EN
EMIN
ESENV
ENNP
EFIS
ELTN
ET
ECIN
EFTA
ES
EINT
EI
ENGR
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ENVI
ETRDECONWTOCS
ECINECONCS
ELN
ELECTIONS
ENVR
EXTERNAL
EXIM
ETRO
ENIV
ESA
ER
EK
EUR
EFINECONCS
EUMEM
EUREM
EPA
ERNG
ENERG
ECA
ETRC
EINVEFIN
ETC
EAP
ECONOMY
EINN
ECONOMIC
EXBS
ECUN
ENGY
ECONOMICS
EIAR
EINDETRD
ECONEFIN
EURN
EDU
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ECIP
EFIM
EAIDS
EREL
EINVETC
ECONCS
ETRA
EAIG
EUC
ERD
ETRN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
EEPET
EUNCH
IS
IZ
IR
IC
IO
IN
ID
IGAD
IT
ILC
IAEA
ITU
ICAO
IMO
IBRD
IMF
ICJ
IAHRC
ITF
INRA
INRO
IWC
IQ
IV
ICRC
ICTY
INRB
IEFIN
ILO
ITRA
ITALY
IBET
ISRAELI
IL
INTELSAT
IRC
IDP
ICTR
IRAQI
IPR
IIP
INMARSAT
ITPGOV
ITALIAN
INTERNAL
IRS
IA
INTERPOL
IEA
INR
IZPREL
IRAJ
IF
ITPHUM
ISRAEL
IACI
INDO
IDA
ISLAMISTS
KSPR
KNNP
KWBG
KAWK
KISL
KPAO
KN
KS
KIPR
KCRM
KDEM
KIRF
KJUS
KHLS
KSCA
KOMC
KAWC
KV
KFRD
KWMN
KTIP
KPWR
KSUM
KGHG
KTIA
KTFN
KIRC
KCOR
KACT
KMDR
KGIC
KOLY
KUNR
KIDE
KMPI
KPKO
KCFE
KVPR
KRAD
KPAL
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KTEX
KTDB
KFSC
KZ
KSEP
KFLU
KE
KU
KPLS
KRVC
KRIM
KSTH
KG
KFLO
KPOA
KICC
KDDG
KPRV
KTBT
KBCT
KSAF
KMOC
KDRG
KBIO
KREC
KSTC
KVRP
KBTR
KMIG
KENV
KNSD
KCGC
KWAC
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KWMM
KPRP
KNEI
KPAI
KO
KVIR
KX
KMCA
KCRS
KMFO
KID
KCIP
KNAR
KR
KCRCM
KBTS
KSEO
KHDP
KFIN
KOCI
KGIT
KNUP
KPAONZ
KNUC
KNNPMNUC
KERG
KSCI
KTLA
KHIV
KCSY
KTRD
KMRS
KNPP
KJUST
KCMR
KTER
KRCM
KCFC
KSAC
KCHG
KREL
KFTFN
KCOM
KLIG
KDEMAF
KAID
KGCC
KICA
KHUM
KSEC
KPIN
KESS
KDEV
KWWMN
KOM
KWNM
KRFD
KRGY
KIFR
KWMNCS
KPAK
KOMS
KHSA
MPOS
MOPS
MARR
MTCR
MNUC
MASS
MX
MCAP
MAR
MTRE
MASC
MK
MG
MTCRE
MI
MD
MA
MO
MY
MU
ML
MRCRE
MAS
MEDIA
MC
MR
MIL
MW
MARAD
MAPP
MZ
MP
MOPPS
MTS
MLS
MILI
MEPN
MEPI
MEETINGS
MERCOSUR
MT
MCC
MIK
MAPS
MV
MILITARY
MDC
MEPP
MASSMNUC
MUCN
MQADHAFI
NATO
NG
NL
NZ
NT
NW
NO
NU
NS
NPT
NASA
NI
NK
NSG
NE
NORAD
NAFTA
NP
NATIONAL
NSSP
NSF
NA
NGO
NV
NR
NDP
NIPP
NZUS
NH
NC
NEW
NRR
NAR
NATOPREL
NPG
NSC
NPA
NSFO
OPDC
OPRC
OEXC
OTRA
ODIP
OIIP
OVIP
OPIC
OPCW
OAS
OREP
OSCE
OSCI
OES
OFDP
OECD
OCS
OIC
OPAD
OVP
OHUM
OFFICIALS
OIE
OTR
OMIG
OSAC
OBSP
OFDA
ON
OCII
PREL
PGOV
PARM
PINR
PTER
PHUM
PK
PREF
PM
PHSA
PA
PINS
PE
PBTS
PCI
PO
PL
POGOV
PAK
PEL
PGIV
PROP
PP
PBIO
POL
POLITICS
POLICY
PINL
PBT
PMIL
POV
PTBS
PG
POSTS
PALESTINIAN
PROV
PNAT
PINF
PRL
PAS
PDOV
PRAM
PREO
PAHO
PHUMPGOV
PAO
PREFA
PSI
POLITICAL
PAIGH
PARMS
PROG
PTERE
PRGOV
PORG
PS
PGOF
PKFK
PSOE
PEPR
PPA
PINT
PMAR
PRELP
PNG
PFOR
PUNE
PGOVLO
PHUMBA
PSEPC
PNR
POLINT
PGOVE
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PDEM
PECON
PGOC
PY
PLN
PHUH
PF
PHUS
PU
PARTIES
PCUL
PGGV
PSA
PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA
PHUMPREL
RS
RU
RW
REACTION
RCMP
RSO
RO
RP
ROOD
RM
ROBERT
RICE
REGION
RSP
RF
RIGHTS
RIGHTSPOLMIL
RUPREL
RELATIONS
RFE
REPORT
SY
SP
SOCI
SMIG
SNAR
SCUL
SC
SU
SO
SI
SENV
SZ
SW
SA
SR
SF
SEVN
SN
STEINBERG
SEN
SG
SYR
SWE
SK
SH
SNARCS
SAARC
SNARIZ
SPCE
SARS
SNARN
SCRS
SYRIA
SL
SENVKGHG
SAN
ST
SIPDIS
SSA
SPCVIS
SOFA
SANC
SHI
SHUM
SIPRS
TSPA
TSPL
TU
TBIO
TRGY
TPHY
TS
TP
TW
TBID
TI
TF
TZ
TD
TT
TN
TNGD
TC
TX
TH
TL
TIP
THPY
TV
TK
TERRORISM
TO
TRSY
TURKEY
TINT
TFIN
TAGS
TR
US
UNSC
UNGA
UK
UP
UNCHC
UN
UNMIK
UNCSD
UY
USTR
USOAS
UNHRC
UNFCYP
UG
UNAUS
UNESCO
UNIDROIT
UNO
UV
UNHCR
USUN
UZ
USNC
UNCHR
UNCND
UNEP
USEU
USPS
USAID
UE
UNVIE
UAE
UNDP
UNODC
UNCHS
UNFICYP
UNDESCO
UNC
UNPUOS
UNDC
UNICEF
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09BRASILIA599, NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION: BRAZIL MAY SOFTEN ON IAEA INTERVIEW REQUEST, BUT ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL NOT LIKELY
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09BRASILIA599.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09BRASILIA599 | 2009-05-11 21:19 | 2011-02-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia |
VZCZCXRO1559
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #0599/01 1312119
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 112119Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4277
INFO RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0142
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 9514
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7711
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 4022
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 6201
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1265
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEANFA/NRC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000599
SIPDIS
STATE FOR ISN/MNSA
UNVIE FOR IAEA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: ENRG KNNP TRGY ETTC IAEA BR AR
SUBJECT: NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION: BRAZIL MAY SOFTEN ON IAEA INTERVIEW REQUEST, BUT ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL NOT LIKELY
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Lisa Kubiske, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
REF: A) STATE 18646,
B) BRASILIA 201,
C) UNVIE VIENNA 29,
D) 2008 RIO 295,
E) 2008 BRASILIA 1529
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. It appears that an internal turf battle between Brazil's Defense and External Relations Ministries led to Defense Minister Nelson Jobim's refusal to cooperate with the IAEA's request to interview a Brazilian scientist over his book on nuclear weapons. Minister Jobim now recognizes that refusing IAEA access to Brazilian personnel and facilities risks creating an impression that the Government of Brazil (GOB) does not support global non-proliferation goals, and has expressed a willingness to find a way forward on the book matter.
¶2. (C) The idea of Brazil signing an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol is dead for now, according to Ministry of Exterior Relations (MRE) officials. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration has always been a reluctant supporter of existing non-proliferation measures and remains wary of new ones. Defense Minister Jobim has now emerged as the strongest voice in defense of Brazil's traditional opposition to an Additional Protocol. The environment is unlikely to change until a new president enters office in 2011. See para 9 for Embassy suggestions on how to lay the groundwork bilaterally and multilaterally for the incoming Brazilian government to engage in a constructive way on non-proliferation. An upcoming visit to Washington by Minister Jobim, scheduled for May 22, presents an excellent opportunity for high-level engagement with this key player. Furthermore, an informal visit by a few high-level USG non-proliferation officials in the near term could be helpful to increase our understanding of Brazilian views and lay the foundation for future advances on non-proliferation. END SUMMARY.
OBSTACLES TO A GOOD IDEA
¶3. (C) The proposal for Brazil to sign an IAEA Additional Protocol has been rejected by the Brazilian Government. President Lula made that decision based on advice from Defense Minister Jobim, MRE's Director of the Division for Disarmament and Sensitive Technologies, Minister Santiago Mourao (strictly protect) told Post's Environment, Science and Technology, and Health (ESTH) Counselor at a meeting on April 24. Mourao acknowledged the recent conversation between President Obama and President Lula on nuclear non-proliferation, but this has not caused Brazil to alter its position. In a meeting with Ambassador Sobel May 8, MRE Under Secretary for Political Affairs Vera Machado confirmed that Brazil is not open to discussion on signing an Additional Protocol, citing language in the December 2008 National Defense Strategy prepared by the Ministry of Defense.
¶4. (C) The Lula Administration has been a reluctant supporter of existing non-proliferation measures and remains wary of new ones. In his initial campaign for the Presidency, Lula stated that if he had been President he would not have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Defense Minister Jobim has now emerged as the strongest defender of Brazil's tradition opposition to an Additional Protocol. According to Mourao, there are other (unnamed) supporters of this position, as well, both within the Presidency and MRE. Mourao has been the strongest proponent of signing, but now says that he will back off. He joked, "I would deserve your Medal of Honor if I were to raise the issue again" in the current environment. In 2008, Mourao and representatives of other Brazilian nuclear technical bodies had concluded that there was no technical obstacle to Brazil signing and complying with an Additional Protocol (REFTEL D). In February 2009, Othon Pinheiro, the Director-President of Eletrobras Termonuclear S.A., had floated his personal idea -- one that had not been raised elsewhere within the government -- of an alternative inspection arrangement that fell short of an Additional Protocol (REFTEL B), which Washington rejected as an unacceptable substitute (REFTEL C).
¶5. (C) The Defense Ministry's resistance stems from concerns about possible inspections of the Navy's enrichment facility in Aramar, State of Rio de Janeiro, and of the propulsion unit for a planned nuclear powered submarine. Minister Jobim pointed to these concerns in a press interview in Gazeta Mercantil in March. Pinheiro, a former admiral, also acknowledged the military's sensitivity to outside inspections. (COMMENT: Post has long noticed a sharp contrast between the openness of the civilian nuclear energy sector BRASILIA 00000599 002 OF 003 and the research and enrichment work of the Brazilian military. END COMMENT.)
¶6. (C) An internal turf battle over who has the lead in determining Brazil's stance on multilateral nuclear obligations appears to underlie Minister Jobim's decision to block efforts by the IAEA to meet with a Brazilian researcher (Dalton Barrosa), who wrote a doctoral thesis and a book relating to nuclear weapons (REFTEL B). The turf battle arose because MRE had seemed prepared -- without prior consultation with the Defense Ministry -- to allow IAEA officials to interview a Defense Ministry scientist. Jobim told Ambassador Sobel on May 3 that he would not let MRE speak for the Defense Ministry. Nonetheless, Jobim told the Ambassador that he is aware that the Brazilian decision has now generated controversy and undermined Brazil's standing as a supporter of non-proliferation standards. He is now looking for a way to cooperate with the IAEA that does not undermine what he views as his authority on nuclear issues.
¶7. (C) COMMENT. Although MRE insists that it has the lead on Additional Protocol issues and that the Defense Ministry does not play, it is our view that, after President Lula, Minister Jobim has the most clout on nuclear issues. As a result, although he will not agree with us on all aspects of the nuclear issues, he is the principal GOB player we need to engage. Minister Jobim's May 22 visit to Washington provides an excellent opportunity to make progress toward a satisfactory resolution of the book matter. Post encourages meetings with him at the highest levels, in which this issue, as well as the importance of the universal application of an Additional Protocol, are raised with him in a non-confrontational manner. END COMMENT.
POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS FORWARD
¶8. (C) With under 20 months remaining, the Lula Administration appears unlikely to reconsider the issue of an Additional Protocol. Post believes that direct pressure to do so would not be successful and could be counterproductive as the government might react even more strongly, making it difficult for the incoming government to walk back a hardline position. As Under Secretary Machado indicated, the National Defense Strategy has language that can be read to mean Brazil won't accept an Additional Protocol or other inspection regimes while the nuclear weapon states have not made substantial progress in disarming. However, Brazil was very late to the party on joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but eventually did so. We can envision a similar pattern taking place with the Additional Protocol. As a matter of policy, Brazil wants to uphold all international obligations, particularly those from the United Nations. This leaves the Brazilians in a difficult position balancing support for non-proliferation standards with a strong domestic political constituency that believes Brazil's nuclear program should be free of any outside oversight, as articulated in the National Defense Strategy.
¶9. (C) Post offers the following three-prong approach for laying the groundwork for Brazil's eventual acceptance of an Additional Protocol. The goal would be to look toward the new Brazilian administration taking up the issue when it comes to power in 2011.
- BILATERALLY. Post suggests that the USG directly and through friends and allies educate Brazilians likely to play key roles in the new government about the non-proliferation regime, how an Additional Protocol works, and how it does not impose an unacceptable burden on a country's nuclear program. These Brazilians would include likely presidential candidates Governor Jose Serra and Civilian Household (Prime) Minister Dilma Rousseff and their likely foreign affairs advisors (Sergio Amaral for Serra and Luciano Coutinhos, President of BNDES, in the Presidency). Also, leaders in the civilian nuclear field, such as Pinheiro, key officials at the National Commission on Nuclear Energy (CNEN), the General Institutional Security (GSI), and the electric and nuclear energy companies (Electrobras, Electronuclear, and Industrias Nucleares Brasileiras). Moreover, Navy and other Defense Ministry officials who are willing should be provided with opportunities to see how inspections are carried out elsewhere, so as to reduce their concerns about excessive intrusiveness. Finally, legislators, journalists, and NGOs could be briefed and/or brought to the United States to learn about the Additional Protocol. This educational campaign would need to disarm the concerns about an Additional Protocol posing a real threat to national security and to create a more positive view on an Additional Protocol.
- An informal visit by a few senior USG non-proliferation officials could be helpful to keep a dialogue on non-proliferation going. This would avoid having the current differences with the Lula Administration over the Additional Protocol and the release of Barrosa's book (and the subsequent denial of permission for an IAEA team to interview him) undercut the rest of our non-proliferation agenda. According to MRE Under Secretary Vera Machado, the GOB is close to internal agreement on language that would allow Brazil to agree on using the Argentine-Brazilian Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC) to meet requirements in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. She thought this would be finalized in the latter half of June, making July a good date for a team to visit. If such a team comes to Brazil we suggest that they meet with Civilian Household (Prime) Minister Dilma Rousseff, Defense Minister Jobim, Minister of Mines and Energy Edson Lobao, Minister of Science and Technology Sergio Resende, National Security Advisor Marco Aurelio Garcia, and MRE Under Secretaries for Political Affairs Machado and for Energy Andre Amado.
- MULTILATERALLY. Brazil does not like to be isolated internationally. This is one of the most powerful reasons why it eventually joined the NPT. The greater the number of other countries that sign an Additional Protocol and multilateral bodies that endorse it, the greater the pressure on Brazil. Furthermore, the more the IAEA, the UN General Assembly and other multilateral bodies speak positively towards universal use of Additional Protocols, the more likely that Brazil will eventually come around.
- ARGENTINA. Argentina will play a pivotal role in moving Brazil forward, and any USG team that visits Brazil to discuss this issue should visit Argentina afterward. Currently, Argentina has not pushed Brazil very hard on signing an Additional Protocol, and we should encourage it to do so. Argentina has accepted the view that, because both Brazil and Argentina concluded their Quadpartite Agreement with the IAEA in 1997 under the umbrella of the 1991 the Argentine-Brazilian Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC), Argentina cannot agree to an Additional Protocol without Brazil doing so too. If a way could be found for Argentina to sign an Additional Protocol without Brazil having to do so, it would place enormous pressure on Brazil to follow suit.
SOBEL