

Currently released so far... 6239 / 251,287
Articles
Browse latest releases
2010/12/01
2010/12/02
2010/12/03
2010/12/04
2010/12/05
2010/12/06
2010/12/07
2010/12/08
2010/12/09
2010/12/10
2010/12/11
2010/12/12
2010/12/13
2010/12/14
2010/12/15
2010/12/16
2010/12/17
2010/12/18
2010/12/19
2010/12/20
2010/12/21
2010/12/22
2010/12/23
2010/12/24
2010/12/25
2010/12/26
2010/12/27
2010/12/28
2010/12/29
2010/12/30
2011/01/01
2011/01/02
2011/01/04
2011/01/05
2011/01/07
2011/01/09
2011/01/10
2011/01/11
2011/01/12
2011/01/13
2011/01/14
2011/01/15
2011/01/16
2011/01/17
2011/01/18
2011/01/19
2011/01/20
2011/01/21
2011/01/22
2011/01/23
2011/01/24
2011/01/25
2011/01/26
2011/01/27
2011/01/28
2011/01/29
2011/01/30
2011/01/31
2011/02/01
2011/02/02
2011/02/03
2011/02/04
2011/02/05
2011/02/06
2011/02/07
2011/02/08
2011/02/09
2011/02/10
2011/02/11
2011/02/12
2011/02/13
2011/02/14
2011/02/15
2011/02/16
2011/02/17
2011/02/18
2011/02/19
2011/02/20
2011/02/21
2011/02/22
2011/02/23
2011/02/24
2011/02/25
2011/02/26
2011/02/27
2011/02/28
2011/03/01
2011/03/02
2011/03/03
2011/03/04
2011/03/05
2011/03/06
2011/03/07
2011/03/08
2011/03/09
2011/03/10
2011/03/11
2011/03/13
2011/03/14
2011/03/15
2011/03/16
2011/03/17
2011/03/18
2011/03/19
2011/03/20
2011/03/21
2011/03/22
Browse by creation date
Browse by origin
Embassy Athens
Embassy Asuncion
Embassy Astana
Embassy Asmara
Embassy Ashgabat
Embassy Ankara
Embassy Amman
Embassy Algiers
Embassy Addis Ababa
Embassy Accra
Embassy Abuja
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Embassy Abidjan
Consulate Amsterdam
American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura
Embassy Buenos Aires
Embassy Budapest
Embassy Bucharest
Embassy Brussels
Embassy Bridgetown
Embassy Bratislava
Embassy Brasilia
Embassy Bogota
Embassy Bishkek
Embassy Bern
Embassy Berlin
Embassy Belgrade
Embassy Beirut
Embassy Beijing
Embassy Banjul
Embassy Bangkok
Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan
Embassy Bamako
Embassy Baku
Embassy Baghdad
Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen
Embassy Conakry
Embassy Colombo
Embassy Chisinau
Embassy Caracas
Embassy Canberra
Embassy Cairo
Consulate Curacao
Consulate Ciudad Juarez
Consulate Chennai
Consulate Casablanca
Consulate Cape Town
Embassy Dushanbe
Embassy Dublin
Embassy Doha
Embassy Djibouti
Embassy Dhaka
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Embassy Damascus
Embassy Dakar
Consulate Dubai
Embassy Kyiv
Embassy Kuwait
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Embassy Kinshasa
Embassy Kigali
Embassy Khartoum
Embassy Kathmandu
Embassy Kampala
Embassy Kabul
Consulate Kolkata
Embassy Luxembourg
Embassy Luanda
Embassy London
Embassy Ljubljana
Embassy Lisbon
Embassy Lima
Embassy Lilongwe
Embassy La Paz
Consulate Lagos
Mission USNATO
Embassy Muscat
Embassy Moscow
Embassy Montevideo
Embassy Monrovia
Embassy Minsk
Embassy Mexico
Embassy Mbabane
Embassy Maputo
Embassy Manama
Embassy Managua
Embassy Malabo
Embassy Madrid
Consulate Munich
Consulate Mumbai
Consulate Montreal
Consulate Monterrey
Consulate Milan
Embassy Pristina
Embassy Pretoria
Embassy Prague
Embassy Port Au Prince
Embassy Phnom Penh
Embassy Paris
Embassy Paramaribo
Embassy Panama
Consulate Peshawar
REO Basrah
Embassy Rome
Embassy Riyadh
Embassy Riga
Embassy Reykjavik
Embassy Rangoon
Embassy Rabat
Consulate Rio De Janeiro
Consulate Recife
Secretary of State
Embassy Stockholm
Embassy Sofia
Embassy Skopje
Embassy Singapore
Embassy Seoul
Embassy Sarajevo
Embassy Santo Domingo
Embassy Santiago
Embassy Sanaa
Embassy San Salvador
Embassy San Jose
Consulate Strasbourg
Consulate Shenyang
Consulate Shanghai
Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis
Embassy Tripoli
Embassy Tokyo
Embassy The Hague
Embassy Tel Aviv
Embassy Tehran
Embassy Tegucigalpa
Embassy Tbilisi
Embassy Tashkent
Embassy Tallinn
Consulate Tijuana
USUN New York
USEU Brussels
US Mission Geneva
US Interests Section Havana
US Delegation, Secretary
UNVIE
Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Browse by tag
ASEC
AU
AORC
AF
AM
AFIN
AEMR
AR
ASIG
AMGT
AG
APER
AL
ABLD
ASUP
AA
ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
AE
AMED
AS
AGMT
APECO
AO
AFFAIRS
AJ
ACOA
AX
AROC
ATFN
ASEAN
AFGHANISTAN
ADCO
AFU
AER
ALOW
AODE
ABUD
ATRN
AID
AC
AVERY
APCS
CASC
CJAN
CVIS
CS
COUNTER
CD
CU
CI
CO
CG
CE
CA
CMGT
CH
CWC
CBW
CKGR
CR
CN
CPAS
CONS
CDG
CLINTON
CT
CJUS
CY
CV
COUNTERTERRORISM
CIA
CACM
CDB
CAN
COE
CM
COUNTRY
CLEARANCE
CACS
CF
CONDOLEEZZA
CARSON
CL
CIS
CODEL
CTM
CB
COM
ECON
EFIN
ETRD
EAIR
EAID
ET
EFIS
ENRG
EPET
ETTC
ER
EG
EINV
EAGR
ELAB
EUN
EWWT
ENGR
EMIN
ECIN
ENIV
ES
EC
ECPS
EIND
EI
EU
ENVI
ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS
ELTN
EZ
EINT
ELN
EUR
EUNCH
EN
EINVECONSENVCSJA
ELECTIONS
EINVEFIN
ENNP
ECUN
EXTERNAL
EK
EFINECONCS
ECINECONCS
ECIP
EINDETRD
EUC
EREL
ENVR
ECA
ENERG
ENGY
ETRO
EFTA
ECONCS
ECONOMICS
ECONEFIN
EINVETC
EINN
ESA
ETC
ETRDEINVTINTCS
ESENV
ETRDECONWTOCS
IR
IZ
IWC
IC
ILC
IO
IAEA
IN
IS
IT
ICRC
INTELSAT
ILO
IBRD
IMF
ICAO
IMO
ITALY
ITALIAN
IRAQI
ITRA
ISRAELI
ICJ
IACI
INTERPOL
ID
IV
ICTY
IQ
IPR
INRB
ITPHUM
IIP
IL
IA
INR
ITPGOV
IZPREL
IRC
INRA
INRO
IRAJ
IEFIN
IF
KE
KCRM
KDRG
KIPR
KCOR
KSCA
KBIO
KDEM
KMCA
KMPI
KNNP
KJUS
KOMC
KGHG
KSUM
KSTC
KIRF
KTIP
KWMN
KZ
KG
KTFN
KHLS
KPAO
KFRD
KTIA
KOLY
KCFE
KISL
KFLU
KPKO
KWBG
KTBT
KTDB
KOCI
KUNR
KAWK
KICC
KPAL
KSTH
KN
KS
KGIC
KNPP
KWAC
KMDR
KAWC
KBCT
KIDE
KFLO
KWMNCS
KSEP
KU
KNEI
KVPR
KACT
KRAD
KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KCIP
KSAF
KV
KSPR
KPRP
KFSC
KCRS
KR
KRFD
KX
KO
KPWR
KMIG
KSEC
KIFR
KDEMAF
KFIN
KGCC
KPIN
KHIV
KPLS
KIRC
KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG
KGIT
KBTS
KPRV
KBTR
KERG
KWMM
KRVC
KNSD
KVIR
KNUP
KTER
KDDG
KHSA
KMRS
KHDP
KTLA
KPAK
KNAR
KREL
KPAI
KTEX
KCOM
KNNPMNUC
KPOA
KLIG
KHUM
KDEV
KNUC
KCFC
KREC
KOMS
KWWMN
MASS
MP
MARR
MOPS
MNUC
MX
MO
MCAP
MY
ML
MU
MIL
MC
MTRE
MA
MD
MTCRE
MEPI
MAR
MRCRE
MR
MV
MPOS
MZ
MEPP
MOPPS
MAPP
MASC
MT
MERCOSUR
MK
MDC
MI
MAPS
MCC
MASSMNUC
MQADHAFI
MUCN
MTCR
MG
OVIP
OREP
OTRA
OSCE
OECD
OIIP
OEXC
OPCW
OPIC
OPDC
OPRC
ODIP
OVP
OSCI
OAS
OFDP
OTR
OSAC
OIC
OFFICIALS
OIE
PREL
PGOV
PHUM
PTER
PE
PINR
PINS
PARMS
PARM
PHSA
PA
PK
PBTS
PO
PREF
POL
PLN
POLITICS
PROP
PL
PM
PAO
PSI
PG
PEPR
POV
PALESTINIAN
PINT
PSOE
PU
POLITICAL
PARTIES
PBIO
PECON
PAK
POGOV
PINL
PKFK
PMIL
PY
PFOR
PHALANAGE
PARTY
PRAM
PMAR
PGOVLO
PUNE
PORG
PHUMPREL
PF
POLINT
PHUS
PGOC
PNR
PGGV
PNAT
PGOVE
PRGOV
PRL
PROV
PTERE
PGOF
PHUMBA
PINF
PEL
SNAR
SO
SENV
SU
SCUL
SOCI
SP
SC
SA
SMIG
SAN
SZ
SW
SN
SY
SR
SL
SEVN
SF
SYR
SI
SG
STEINBERG
SIPRS
SH
SNARCS
SOFA
SANC
SHUM
SK
ST
TERRORISM
TRGY
TZ
TX
TBIO
TSPA
TS
TSPL
TW
TU
TD
TIP
TURKEY
TP
TI
TC
TPHY
TH
TO
TK
TNGD
TINT
TRSY
TR
TFIN
TT
UG
UK
UP
UNGA
UNHRC
UZ
UN
UNAUS
USTR
UNSC
US
UNEP
UY
UNESCO
USUN
UNHCR
UAE
UNMIK
USEU
UV
UNO
UNDP
UNCHS
UNVIE
UNCHC
UE
UNDESCO
USAID
UNDC
Browse by classification
Community resources
courage is contagious
Viewing cable 09HAVANA490, CUBA'S ECONOMY - WHERE TWO PLUS TWO EQUALS THREE
If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09HAVANA490.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09HAVANA490 | 2009-08-10 18:06 | 2011-02-04 21:09 | CONFIDENTIAL | US Interests Section Havana |
VZCZCXRO8975
RR RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHHA RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHMT RUEHNG
RUEHNL RUEHQU RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRS RUEHTM RUEHVC
DE RUEHUB #0490/01 2221845
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101845Z AUG 09
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4659
INFO RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000490
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR WHA/CCA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2019
TAGS: ECON PREL PGOV PINR CU
SUBJECT: CUBA'S ECONOMY - WHERE TWO PLUS TWO EQUALS THREE
REF: A. HAVANA 477
¶B. HAVANA 322
¶C. HAVANA 208
¶D. HAVANA 33
¶E. HAVANA 78 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
-------
Summary
-------
¶1. (C) Amidst a flurry of activity starting with Raul
Castro's July 26 speech and ending with the August 1 National
Assembly, Raul and his ministers painted a desperate picture
of the Cuban economy. The Government of Cuba (GOC) lowered
its GDP growth projection for the second time in three months
and Raul promised to cut expenditures to bring them in line
with expected revenue. The GOC approved measures to address
the "tense financial situation," without offering any
details, and predicted an equally difficult 2010.
Expectations for any meaningful reform have been delayed
along with the Sixth Party Congress (Ref A). Instead, we can
expect the GOC to continue to offer only marginal steps
(forward and backward) including Raul's latest suggestions to
improve the productivity of Cuban land by farming with oxen
instead of tractors and sending young communists out to plant
trees. Meanwhile, it remains too early to tell if or when
earlier reforms, such as the leasing of idle farm land, may
impact Cuba's bottom line. End Summary
------------------------
I,m No Economist, but...
------------------------
¶2. (SBU) Vice President and Minister of Economy and Planning
Marino Murillo Jorge reported on July 30 to the Central
Committee of the Cuban Communist Party (PCC) a GDP growth
forecast of 1.7 percent, down from 2.5 percent reported in
April/May (Ref C) and 6 percent forecast in December (Ref D).
(Note: The calculation of GDP in Cuba is not comparable
with other countries, but GDP movements within a Cuban
context are noteworthy. End Note.) The economy grew by 0.8
percent in the first half of 2009, which means the GOC
expects the economy to grow faster in the second half of 2009
(in order to average 1.7 percent overall) probably due to an
improved trade deficit led by slightly higher prices for
nickel and an across the board reduction in imports. Reuters
reported on July 21 that Cuba had lowered its forecast for
imports by 22 percent and exports by 13 percent. The new
estimated trade (in goods) deficit of around USD 8 billion is
USD 3 billion less than Cuba's record 2008 negative balance,
but remains unsustainable. Tourism, a significant source of
foreign income, is up in terms of the number of visitors but
down in terms of revenue. Tourists are buying cheaper
packages and spending less time and money in Cuba. According
to Raul, Cuba is also affected by a weaker U.S. dollar.
Economy Minister Murillo added that Cuba's economic
conditions in 2010 promise to be equally difficult.
¶3. (C) Raul also acknowledged Cuba's liquidity issues (Ref
B) and committed to repay all of its debts. We understand
from some diplomatic contacts that most foreign businesses
started receiving token payments on long overdue debts in
July. Credit lines with foreign banks, including BNP Paribas
and Societe Generale, are being renegotiated. In a public
effort to save every penny, Cuba continues with an austerity
energy plan introduced in June. The electricity and fuel
restrictions even affect businesses that capture foreign
currency like shopping markets and restaurants. One paladar
owner told us that they could lose their operating license if
they use more than their quota of electricity even though the
paladar pays for the high electricity rates in Cuban
Convertible Currency, rather than the subsidized rates paid
in local national currency by state entities and residences.
¶4. (C) To his credit, Raul's speeches did not solely blame
all of Cuba's present economic and financial woes on the U.S.
embargo, the world financial crisis, or the 2008 hurricanes.
More than ever before, Raul emphasized the responsibility of
HAVANA 00000490 002 OF 003
Cubans and, more surprisingly, the responsibility of the
Cuban system. Specifically, he said, "I'm no economist, nor
has it been my responsibility during the years of the
revolution to focus on the details of developing the economy,
but I believe in the idea that, as I said in the last session
of the Parliament, no one, no person or country, can spend
more money than they earn. Two plus two always equals four,
never five. Today...in the conditions of our imperfect
socialism, because of our own shortcomings, two plus two
often produces three." Since his first speech as interim
president in July 2007, Raul has surprised Cubans by candidly
highlighting many of the symptoms of the failed economic
system in Cuba (lack of housing, water, electricity, and
food; high levels of inefficiency, bureaucracy, and
corruption) and some of the causes (lack of incentives to
work, two currencies, and an aging population). What he has
failed to identify (or admit) are the root causes endemic to
a system where the government tries to control every aspect
of the economy, and of life in general.
----------------------------------------
Raul's Latest Solutions: Oxen and Trees
----------------------------------------
¶5. (SBU) The GOC has not publicly detailed its plans to
resolve its liquidity and deficit issues, other than to
vaguely mention guidelines adopted by the Central Committee
on July 29 to balance Cuba's twin deficits. According to
Raul, changing Cuba's economic system is not an option (Ref
A). Unlike in previous July 26 and National Assembly
speeches, Raul offered no new initiatives. Instead, he
focused on the status of previous initiatives: leasing idle
land (see below), a new Comptroller General (Ref A), the
energy austerity plan, and urging retired teachers back to
work. Meanwhile, Raul failed to mention the status of one of
his most promising proposals - pay for performance - which
has passed several public deadlines without taking full
effect.
¶6. (SBU) Rather than proposals, Raul spent a lot of time in
both speeches on one of his most common themes - extolling
Cubans, especially young Cubans, to return to the land and
make it fruitful. "The land is there, the Cubans are here,
let us see if we work or not, if we make the earth yield or
not..." Raul said in his July 26 speech. In both speeches,
he referenced the use of oxen to till the land and transport
goods. He praised a new "suburban agriculture" program
starting in Camaguey and to be rolled out to other
municipalities using animal traction. "In this project, let
us forget about tractors and fuel, even if we had them in
sufficient quantities..." Where the land is useless for food
production, Raul urged young and old to plant trees, "which
represent a major wealth too." The GOC has identified
increasing agricultural production in order to substitute
imports as a matter of national security.
¶7. (C) In that regard, Raul also reported on the status of
the initiative launched in September 2008 to lease idle land
(Ref D). Raul said that 82,000 applications for 690,000
hectares (1.7 million acres) of land have been approved and
distributed. One-third of that amount (225,000 hectares or
550,000 acres) has been sowed, which represents about 6
percent of all state and non-state (cooperatives and some
private) idle land in Cuba. Success stories in the press
mainly highlight retired Cubans who have taken on 10-15 acres
each. The new farmers usually lament the low prices paid by
the state and a lack of interest in farming by Cuban youth,
but otherwise claim to be proud that they can do something to
provide for their country and family. It is unlikely this
initiative will affect overall Cuban agricultural production
in 2009, which reportedly fell by 9.3 percent through June.
Once all 690,000 hectares (or more) are productive, then we
may start to see a positive impact throughout the country.
While agriculture production itself represents less than 5
percent of GDP, any increase in the domestic production of
agricultural products that can replace costly imports will
help ease Cuba's financial problems.
-------
Comment
HAVANA 00000490 003 OF 003
-------
¶8. (C) The week following the National Assembly, First Vice
President Machado Ventura traveled around the country
visiting agriculture cooperatives, refineries, and
laboratories. With no new initiative to tout, Machado's
primary message simply repeated the GOC's mantra for
perfecting the socialist system through hard work, savings,
and efficiency. With a bleak outlook for 2010 and no Party
Congress to look forward to, these words have become
meaningless slogans to any Cubans who are still listening.
FARRAR