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Viewing cable 09CAIRO549, SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL SCHWARTZ

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09CAIRO549 2009-03-31 14:02 2011-01-28 00:12 SECRET Embassy Cairo
O 311444Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2058
INFO HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T CAIRO 000549 
  
  
 E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2019 
 TAG PREL, MASS, PARM, MOPS, KPAL, IS, EG 
 SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL SCHWARTZ 
  
 Classified By: Ambassador Margaret Scobey per 1.4 (b) and (d). 
  
 1. Key Points 
  
 -- (SBU) U.S.- Egypt military relationship is strong, but 
 should change to reflect new regional and transnational 
 threats. 
  
 -- (SBU) More focus is needed on combating emerging threats, 
 including border security, counter terrorism, civil defense, 
 and peacekeeping. 
  
 -- (S/NF) Egypt continues to improve efforts to combat arms 
 smuggling into Gaza, but a decision by Field Marshal Tantawi 
 to delay a counter tunneling project threatens progress. 
  
 2.  (S/NF) SUMMARY: General Schwartz, welcome to Egypt. 
 Since our Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program began 
 almost 30 years ago, our strong military relationship has 
 supported peace between Egypt and Israel and ensured critical 
 Suez Canal and overflight access for U.S. military 
 operations. The relationship, however, should now change to 
 reflect new regional and transnational security threats.  In 
 FY2009, Congress removed conditions on U.S. assistance to 
 Egypt. We and the GOE will be able to make the best case for 
 continuing a robust FMF program by targeting funding for 
 shared priorities like peacekeeping and border security, and 
 must take more action on emerging regional security threats 
 such as piracy. 
  
 3.  (SBU) Summary continued.  Your visit comes as Egypt 
 continues its efforts to mediate a permanent cease-fire 
 between Israel and Hamas, to facilitate intra-Palestinian 
 negotiations to form a new, interim government, and to stop 
 the smuggling of arms into Gaza. Many Egyptians see the new 
 U.S. administration as a cause for cautious optimism in both 
 the bilateral relationship and in U.S. engagement with the 
 region.  Special Envoy for the Middle East Senator George 
 Mitchell has visited Egypt and the region twice and will 
 likely return to Cairo in April. Your visit will fall on the 
 anniversary of the April 6, 2008 nation-wide strike 
 protesting political and economic conditions.  At least one 
 opposition group has called for another April 6 strike this 
 year.  We have requested meetings for you with Chief of Staff 
 Lieutenant General Sami Anan and Air Marshal Reda.  End 
 summary. 
  
 ----------------------------------------- 
 Mil-Mil Cooperation: Ready for Next Level 
 ----------------------------------------- 
  
 4. (S/NF) President Mubarak and military leaders view our 
 military assistance program as the cornerstone of our mil-mil 
 relationship and consider the USD 1.3 billion in annual FMF 
 as "untouchable compensation" for making and maintaining 
 peace with Israel. The tangible benefits to our mil-mil 
 relationship are clear: Egypt remains at peace with Israel, 
 and the U.S. military enjoys priority access to the Suez 
 Canal and Egyptian airspace. We believe, however, that our 
 relationship can accomplish much more. Over the last year, we 
 have engaged MOD leaders on developing shared strategic 
 objectives to address current and emerging threats, including 
 border security, counter terrorism, civil defense, and 
 peacekeeping. Our efforts thus far have met with limited 
 success. 
  
 5. (S/NF) Decision-making within MOD rests almost solely with 
 Minister of Defense Field Marshal Tantawi. In office since 
 1991, he consistently resists change to the level and 
 direction of FMF funding and is therefore one of the chief 
 impediments to transforming our security relationship. During 
 his tenure, the tactical and operational readiness of the 
 Egyptian Armed Forces (EAF) has degraded. But he retains 
 President Mubarak's support, and so he and the top brass will 
 most likely stay in position until Mubarak leaves the scene. 
 COS Anan will welcome the lack of conditions on Egyptian 
 assistance in FY 2009 funding and will seek support in 
 convincing Congress of Egypt's strategic importance. Anan 
 should be reassured that Egypt remains a key U.S. ally, but 
 stress that given the current economic downturn, Egypt should 
 do more to justify continuing value by demonstrating through 
 action its support for our shared regional security goals 
  
 6. (S/NF) One way to demonstrate Egypt's continued strategic 
 importance is through shifting more FMF funding to address 
 asymmetric threats like terrorism and improving border 
 security along its long and porous borders. We should also 
 stress that our mil-mil relationship is much greater than the 
 yearly flow of military assistance. Egypt could play a more 
 active and influential role in regional security issues, 
 including supporting and training the Iraqi military, 
 deploying more peacekeeping troops to Sudan, joining 
 neighbors in combating piracy, and stemming the flow of 
 illegal migration. Another concrete display of a 
 forward-looking security strategy would be to support 
 CENTCOM's efforts to re-invent Bright Star. Anan may lament 
 the loss of large-scale Bright Stars. We should stress that 
 Bright Star continues to be an important strategic statement 
 for the U.S. and its regional allies, and solicit his input 
 for ways to make Bright Star more relevant. 
  
 7. (S/NF) Both Anan and Reda will express concern over 
 releasability issues and frustration with Egypt's inability 
 to procure restricted weapons systems.   Some systems are not 
 releasable because of Egyptian refusal to sign the necessary 
 agreement (CISMOA) providing end-use assurances and ensuring 
 proper protection of certain U.S. origin technology. 
 Releasability is of special concern to the EAF as they 
 prepare to purchase 24 F-16 aircraft that will require a 
 costly retrofit with less-advanced weapons systems.  Since 
 2006, the Department of State has notified Congress of six 
 potential end-use violations by the Egyptian military.  We 
 are currently investigating two additional cases, one 
 involving the visit of a Chinese military official to an F-16 
 facility on an Egyptian Air Force base. Other systems are 
 either not releasable to any country or denied for political 
 reasons, mainly due to concerns regarding Israel's 
 Qualitative Military Edge (QME). We should stress that 
 decisions to release advanced weapons system are made on a 
 country-by-country basis, but signing a CISMOA and expanding 
 cooperation on current regional threats would be welcomed 
 steps to our dialogue on releasability. 
  
 ----------------------------------- 
 Israel-Palestine, Counter Smuggling 
 ----------------------------------- 
  
 8. (SBU) The election of President Obama generated much 
 optimism in Egypt and hopes that the new administration would 
 quickly focus on problems in the Middle East.  In particular, 
 the Egyptian leadership wants the U.S. to urgently address 
 the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Senator Mitchell has 
 assured them that the Administration will press hard for 
 progress.  The Egyptians have traditionally served as an 
 intermediary between us, the Israelis, and the Palestinians. 
 Since the January 2008 Hamas breach of the Egypt-Gaza border, 
 the Egyptian role has shifted to focus on intra-Palestinian 
 reconciliation and the establishment of a lasting 
 Hamas-Israel cease-fire.  EGIS Chief Soliman has worked to 
 cement a Israeli-Hamas cease-fire but believes he was badly 
 undercut by the Israeli introduction of the release of IDF 
 Corporal Gilad Shalit as a new pre-condition for the 
 cease-fire.  For the moment, rocket strikes from Gaza are 
 relatively low in frequency. 
  
 9. (S/NF) Egyptian security forces continue to improve 
 counter-smuggling efforts along the Gaza border and further 
 afield, through increasing their security presence in 
 northern Sinai and giving greater focus to preventing weapons 
 from entering the Sinai. Egyptian officials claim to have 
 identified and sealed over 100 tunnels since the beginning of 
 the year, with new discoveries occurring daily.  The Egyptian 
 General Intelligence Service (EGIS) requested U.S. assistance 
 to purchase 16 X-ray screening systems to monitor vehicular 
 traffic into the Sinai for weapons and explosives, and we are 
 currently exploring ways to provide the requested assistance. 
  A recent decision by Tantawi to delay a FMF-funded counter 
 smuggling project, however, threatens progress.  In February, 
 Tantawi insisted that the Army Corps of Engineers sever the 
 satellite link necessary to calibrate seismic-acoustic 
 sensors being installed along the Egypt-Gaza border to detect 
 tunneling activity.  He also insisted that the ACE disable 
 GPS technology needed to accurately pinpoint tunneling 
 activity.  This decision will result in a four to five month 
 delay to develop and implement a technical alternative. USG 
 efforts to encourage Tantawi to reconsider, including from 
 CENTCOM Commander General Petraeus, have been unsuccessful. 
  
 --------------- 
 Regional Issues 
 --------------- 
  
 10. (SBU) Egypt has shown increasing confidence that Iraq has 
 turned the corner, although concerns remain that the 
 Shi'a-led government is prone to Iranian influence.  On Iran, 
 Egypt is concerned by rising Iranian influence in the region, 
 has supported UN sanctions, and is increasingly active on 
 countering Iran, e.g. in Gaza and to some extent in Lebanon, 
 working with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to support 
 Lebanese political and territorial sovereignty. Egypt has 
 deployed peacekeeping troops to the UN Mission in Darfur, 
 just agreed to send troops to the UN Mission in Congo and is 
 taking a greater role within the African Union on regional 
 security and political issues. 
  
 ------------------------------- 
 Internal Politics and Economics 
 ------------------------------- 
  
 11. (SBU) We continue to promote democratic reform in Egypt, 
 including the expansion of political freedom and pluralism, 
 and respect for human rights.  Egyptian democracy and human 
 rights efforts, however, are being stymied, and the GoE 
 remains skeptical of our role in democracy promotion, 
 complaining that any efforts to open up will result in 
 empowering the Muslim Brotherhood, which currently holds 86 
 seats in Egypt's 454-seat parliament.  Economic reform is 
 ongoing although Egypt still suffers from widespread poverty 
 affecting 35-40% of the population. Egyptian-U.S. trade has 
 more than doubled in the last four years, reaching almost $9 
 billion in 2008. The U.S. exports to Egypt about twice as 
 much as it imports.  Egyptian banks operate very 
 conservatively and have been spared involvement in risky 
 financial products, but the effects of the global economic 
 crisis on Egypt are beginning to be felt.  As the global 
 credit crunch worsens, Egypt remains vulnerable as exports, 
 Suez Canal revenues, tourism, and remittances -- its largest 
 sources of revenue -- are all down and likely to continue to 
 fall. 
  
  
  
 SCOBEY