File :-(, x, )
Anonymous
I'm getting a little miffed at how the Rays story is being presented. I know it's probably the most interesting to the masses, but still. It's being told completely wrong.

It's being presented as this plucky band of overachievers who have gone from regular laughing stock to shockingly playing the game the right way and winning game after game against all odds.

Instead, I find it so much more compelling that it's another triumph of science and sound reason over gut instinct. This was a team assembled using sound analysis born in fiscal sence, applying academic thought and research to exploit market inefficiencies and build a deep organization through sabermetric ideas. Not traditional scouting and conventional wisdom.

And the story should be the fact that progressive baseball analysts saw this coming. Instead of saying "no one saw this coming" the story should be "a lot of people saw this coming and they see a lot of other things coming, too, so you should listen to them." It should be "look, see, this forecasting system that's right more often than anyone you know said they were going to win 90 games."

I'm sure to anyone intelligent that's more interesting. And more important than that, it's more true than the drivel version of the Disney story the media is feeing us.
>> Anonymous
And fuck tradition. Tradition makes sports fun, but not when it's at the expense of sound logic.
>> Anonymous
SABERMETRICS?!!?!

DON'T COME TO ME WITH THAT BULLSHIT JABBERWOCKY SHIT

WHEN A GUY IS A GAMER, I KNOW HE'S A GAMER
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
FIRE THIS MOTHERFUCKING NIGGER IT'S UNACCEPTABLE TO LOSE THREE FUCKING STRAIGHT GAMES TO THESE MOTHERFUCKING LOSERS WHO UNTIL NOW HAVE BEEN LASSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTT FUCKIIINGGGGGGGGGGG PLACCCCEEEEEEEEE EVERY YEAR

HOW THE FUCK COULD HE LET MANNY RAMIERZ GO ANYWAY FUCKING MORON I DON'T WANT THIS FAGGOT LEADING MY RED SOX
>> Anonymous
>>406553
Typical redsox fan
>> Commissioner Red !5gFoSxriW2
Either the cat farted, or OP is a troll. Either way, something stinks.
>> Anonymous
>>406560
>Either the cat farted

I think you mean the dog.
>> HKK !h7MHU9L/Oo
     File :-(, x)
>>406553
>> Anonymous
>>406553
Yeah, what a moran
>> Anonymous
i agree with op
>> Anonymous
>>406559
typical bandwagon red sox hater.
>> Anonymous
>>406658

y halo thar soxfag
>> Sneak !!+y8MDiWrdyT
Honestly, I was expecting the Rays to have their best season this year. I just wasn't expecting this kind of success that they're having. They went from dead last to one game away from the World Series, so I'd like to think the Rays management know what they are doing.
>> Anonymous
>>406549

Can sabermetrics also explain why they were a laughingstock for every single year prior to this season?
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>406549

Don't forget that PECOTA also nailed the Mariners as a sub-.500 team when everyone was sucking their nuts as a dark horse in March.

>>406673

Probably. Google for PECOTA's projections for the last several years.
>> Anonymous
>>406684

I don't care about third-party projections, but OP claims the team was actually assembled using sabermetrics. Did the Rays brass suddenly start using sabermetrics to build the team this year? If it was really that effective, how do you explain it being their first winning season ever?
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
>>406576
That autograph is the single greatest thing Shelly Duncan has ever done.
>> Anonymous
>>406703
>That autograph is the only thing of note Shelly Duncan has ever done.

fixed
>> Gay For Men !FDiKoSlMKI
     File :-(, x)
>>406703
...son?
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
>>406703
...brother?
>> Anonymous
>>406706
watch more yankees games. he was shitty this year but in 07 he had a few key hits and one HR per 10 AB
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>406701

The current moneyball FO guys came into power about three years ago. Their two previous losing seasons can be credited to still working with the pile of yuck the traditionalists dumped on them.

It is this FO that made the Delmon Young trade, which looks genius in retrospect but saberheads probably had down as genius the instant it happened, as it gave the Rays two things they needed (a quality #3 starter with high-#2 to low-#1 potential and a quality defensive SS that runs the bases well) while giving up a power bat they didn't need because Upton was maturing, Longoria was on his way and they has smartly grabbed Pena when no one else wanted him. (This is the same reason they shipped Huff to the Astros for Dan Wheeler, another quality role player they needed.) In addition, Iwamura was a great and underrated pickup, and Sonnanstine was a pretty under-the-radar prospect that has more potential than his current #4 status indicates.
>> Anonymous
>>406549
So why did they sign Cliff Floyd?
>> Anonymous
I disagree with OP, but he makes a good argument for Sabermetrics. Is this copypasta or OC?
>> Billy the Blue Ranger !5lGrhM17rM
>plucky

WHO
THE FUCK
DO YOU THINK
YOU ARE

Rays win on Thursday to finish things up
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>406740

There's not a whole lot to argue. PECOTA has been the most accurate predictor of final standings since its inception. Very hard to argue with results beyond being a purist, gluing your index fingers to your eardrums and going "LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA".
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>406734

Sabermetrically? Power lefty. That's about it.

He probably has a good deal of experience to share as well, but (a) that would make him a good coach rather than a good player (which can't really be quantified), and (b) it's Cliff Floyd, so that's not a guarantee.
>> Anonymous
>>406744

You're probably right, but the 2008 Seattle Mariners PECOTA rating is pretty damning.
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
>>406549
>> Anonymous
>>406734

Cliff Floyd was signed as a clubhouse leader more than anything. And if you look at the work he's done with guys like BJ Upton and Fernando Perez, you'll see that he was more than worth his value.

Plus, he hit a few home runs.
>> Anonymous
>>406893
>Plus, he hit a few home runs.
>he hit a few home runs.
>a few home runs.
>home run

see
>>406905

ARRIVE
HIT HOMERS
LEAVE
>> Anonymous
>>406559
Hahaha no. Any Red Sox fan with half a brain (ie one who's not a bandwagoner) knows Francona should be Manager for life.

In b4 "all Red Sox fans are bandwagoners". Piss off, I was around during the John Valentin days (never forget)
>> Anonymous
>>406935
Perhaps but you can't argue that Francona has managed like complete shit this series.
>> Anonymous
>>406938
Leaving Beckett in an extra inning was the only decision I disagreed with. There's nothing he could do about Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, and Byrd pitching like absolute shit, and there's nothing he can do about half of his lineup going 0 for whatever.
>> Anonymous
>>406942
He left Beckett in 2 1/3 inning to long, he has it in his mind that Beckett is just shaking off rust and he'll come back around he's stubborn and in the postseason you can't afford to be stubborn. The other stupid move Tito did was replace Lowrie with Cora for Game 3. While it didn't make any difference in that game it was a stupid move. Cora's range is very small so balls get by him quite a bit., as for batting he's an automatic out.
>> Anonymous
>>406719
huff for wheeler?

dude, you are a serious bandwagoner or something. Huff was shipped out FOUR fucking years before we traded Ty Wigginton for Dan Wheeler last year.

Friedman, who WILL win exec of the year, is not a sabermetrics guy, he's not a moneyball guy either. He brought his own twists.

The entire organization flipped when they brought Maddon in. The local media during his first two years called him a nutjob. They said he was crazy, he'd never inspire respect, etc. etc. simply cause he only talked about positives after the games.

The Rays were built through the draft and through intelligent signings. That's as traditionalist as it gets. The difference is, they are getting historic, unheard of production from the bench, and from their youth.

Oh, and the team loves one another. The only hate on the Rays, is brotherly love. Speaking of which, Rays STOMP philly in 5.
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>407099

Right, it was Wigginton for Wheeler, sorry. I knew it was a monstro-util guy, I just remembered the wrong one.

But no, the Rays FO is very much saber/moneyball. They apply economic principles to analyzing player stats and determining their worth. They even admitted this on E:60, among other places. Guess what? That's moneyball.

Claimnig the Rays are traiditionalists because they built through intelligent drafting makes you sound like one guy I met that applauded the rays for getting by on "fundamental baseball" because they ran well. He then proceeded to argue that the Yankees were the better team (and more deserving of a playoff spot) because they had more Hall of Famers on their roster.
>> Anonymous
>>407117
This is a specious, semantical argument either way.

Friedman uses concepts from saber and moneyball, just like any other small market team. But guess what, that doesn't mean he is a follower of moneyball.

What it means, is that moneyball and sabermetrics hit universal tones for necessities to winning. That is, the shared concepts are shared because they're important to the sport and a clubs success, if that club can't simply lure the biggest names with the largest contracts.

The difference between the Rays this year, and the Rays last year, is pitching and defense. Guess what, that's traditionalist. It's the fucking DEFINITION.
>> Anonymous
>>407117
Further, Joe Maddon was developing statistical categories paralleling sabermetrics 25 years ago while in the minors. Ever feel like crediting him some, not just the boyman-genius Friedman?

Jughits. Greatest stat never used.
("hits that go for the jugular" maddon said, having created that term 24 years ago)
>> Anonymous
>>406701
They've started building using sabermetrics only in the last few seasons. The reason they sucked before was that previous management sucked. The reason they didn't improve instantly was that it took several years for their various trades, signings and draft picks to grow up and pay off.

These both seem very obvious.

>>406684
They actually were one of the four teams PECOTA missed on by more than about 5 games last season. The Rays greatly underachieved in PECOTA's assessment last season. They also suffered from some bad luck and failures on defense and in the bullpen, things which are relatively easy to fix.

And obviously sabermetrics can explain why they were bad every year before this. So can you: because they had sucky players.
>> Anonymous
>>407099
You clearly don't actually know what Moneyball is.
>> Anonymous
>>407135

>Friedman uses concepts from saber and moneyball, just like any other small market team.

No, not like any other small market team.


>The difference between the Rays this year, and the Rays last year, is pitching and defense. Guess what, that's traditionalist. It's the fucking DEFINITION.

Yeah, you clearly haven't a single clue what moneyball is about.
>> Anonymous
>>407223
you're retarded.

this is a case where a rose by any other name isn't a rose.
>> Anonymous
>>407232
you don't even know what this threads about. Go to remedial school and learn some fucking reading comprehension, tool.
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>407135

And guess how they got that pitching and defense? Applying economic principles to analyzing player value and scouting/drafting/trading/signing free agents accordingly. Guess what? That's moneyball!
>> Anonymous
>>407232was TC, so>>407239looks foolish.


>>407244
Look, someone who knows what he's talking about.
>> Anonymous
>>407244
Grant Balfour. cut. twice.
Willy Aybar. cut. once.
Carlos Pena. cut. twice.
J.P. Howell. cut. twice.
Andy Sonnanstine.... Chuck Lamar
Scott Kazmir..... Chuck Lamar
James Shields...... chuck Lamar
BJ Upton....... Chuck Lamar
Carl Crawford..... Chuck Lamar
Rocco Baldelli...... Chuck Lamar
Dan Wheeler..... Chuck Lamar (originally)
Ben Zobrist..... Chuck Lamar


I could continue like this all day. Friedman made many, many, many great moves to add to this club, some from the draft (Longoria, Price) some from FA signings (Pena, Percival, Floyd) but mostly from trades (Howell, Garza, Bartlett, Wheeler, Gross, Navarro, Jackson).

So tell me.... how is this all solely on the shoulders of Friedman, and his use of moneyball?

Do you think there's a chance that the other teams got value in return? Or do you think Friedman is this godchild who sees talent where nobody else does?

Fact is, everyone in MLB has talent. It's the MANAGER who makes the team.

I hope you fucking die, btw. Not everything is stats alone.
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>407263
>Grant Balfour. cut. twice.
Smart Friedman pickup.

>Willy Aybar. cut. once.
Smart Friedman pickup.

>Carlos Pena. cut. twice.
As you've acknowledged, smart Friedman pickup.

>J.P. Howell. cut. twice.
Smart Friedman pickup.

>Andy Sonnanstine.... Chuck Lamar
Granted, but he's certainly not the ace of the staff.

>Scott Kazmir..... Chuck Lamar
Product of the Mets' stupidity more than Lamar.

>James Shields...... chuck Lamar
>BJ Upton....... Chuck Lamar
>Carl Crawford..... Chuck Lamar
All granted.

>Rocco Baldelli...... Chuck Lamar
For all that he's done.

>Dan Wheeler..... Chuck Lamar (originally)
Cut by that same FO, then brought back in by Friedman.

>Ben Zobrist..... Chuck Lamar
Granted, but a situation similar to Sonnanstine.

So Lamar gets credit for three quality player and two decent role players. The Mets get credit for one quality player. The injury bug removes one player from the equation.

Everyone else? Friedman.

Oh yes, the current build of the team was certainly all Lamar's doing.
>> Anonymous
>>407263

>It's the MANAGER who makes the team.

LOL!

Kilgamayan, btw. . . I recognize someone from GameFAQs.
>> Commissioner Red !5gFoSxriW2
>>407380
>Kilgamayan, btw. . . I recognize someone from GameFAQs.

So Anon hangs out on the GameFAQs Forums. That explains a lot.
>> Anonymous
>>407386
This is somehow news to you?
>> Commissioner Red !5gFoSxriW2
>>407392

It is not enough to know that there is a hole. You must know how deep the hole is.
>> Anonymous
/sp/ump
>> Anonymous
>>407577
>> Kilgamayan !2BklmILFiE
>>407380

I hope you lurk/post on the baseball board, philkid's an excellent source of info since he has subscriptions to a whole bunch of saber sites.
>> Anonymous
     File :-(, x)
>> Anonymous
/sp/ump
>> Anonymous
>>408655
Lol have they made a South Park episode about it already
>> Anonymous
>>409515
epic fail

This thread has a lot of good arguments. For newfags who don't know what Moneyball's about, though, it's not about sabermetrics, as the most complex stats they really get into are OBP and SLG, although OPS and WHIP might be mentioned, I haven't read it in a while. It's about finding and exploiting inefficiencies in the baseball market. Billy Beane was able to build a contending team with a small payroll because he exploited stats that were fairly overlooked, such as OBP and SLG. Now, everyone and their grandma is aware of such stats so the savvier GMs have (hopefully) moved onto WARP1 and WARP3, VORP (which doesn't account for fielding, I believe), FRA, etc.

Anywho, GO CUBS
>> Anonymous
>>409543
Not entirely true, there's a large portion in the book itself of how much sabermetrics and Bill James had an influence on the A's, and DePodesta was a sabermetric whiz. The A's, and other teams, definitely got in to more than just raw stats and advance them every season.

But, you were 99% right.
>> Anonymous
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/16/635814/who-s-responsible-for-the#comments
>> Anonymous
>>408655
So Tampa Bay is a girl?
>> Anonymous
Another triumph for sabermetrics.
>> Anonymous
>>407386

The GameFAQs Sports boards aren't that bad. It seems to be the only place there that isn't infested with 13 year olds.